EURUSD ANALYSIS
The European Currency against the United States Dollar (€/$) –Nickname ‘Fiber’
CENTRAL BANK |
ECB |
FED |
FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES |
51.373 Million USD |
41.901 Million USD |
EURUSD is the most liquid pair worldwide. Almost all Forex brokers offer EURUSD at their lowest available spreads (Bid/Ask) and that makes this pair ideal for Forex scalping and algorithmic trading. Additionally, there are many Expert Advisors that trade exclusively EURUSD. Historically, EURUSD is fluctuating in a general range between €/$=0.80 and €/$=1.60. In addition, there is a positive historic correlation between EURUSD and GBPUSD. On the other hand, there is a negative correlation between EURUSD and USDCHF.
These are the monthly average returns of EURUSD based on 15 years of daily data.
CALENDAR MONTH |
AVERAGE MONTHLY RETURNS |
TIMES (↑) |
TIMES (↓) |
AVERAGE DAILY VOLATILITY |
JANUARY |
-0.91% |
6 |
9 |
0.899% |
FEBRUARY |
-0.13% |
8 |
7 |
0.847% |
MARCH |
0.26% |
7 |
8 |
0.833% |
APRIL |
0.76% |
8 |
7 |
0.802% |
MAY |
-0.64% |
6 |
9 |
0.884% |
JUNE |
0.65% |
10 |
5 |
0.847% |
JULY |
-0.04% |
6 |
9 |
0.780% |
AUGUST |
-0.50% |
8 |
7 |
0.777% |
SEPTEMBER |
0.63% |
8 |
7 |
0.865% |
OCTOBER |
-0.55% |
7 |
8 |
0.871% |
NOVEMBER |
0.48% |
8 |
7 |
0.869% |
DECEMBER |
1.69% |
9 |
6 |
0.786% |
(↑)-LONG TRADES
According to data during 2000-2014, the best months to go long on EURUSD are:
→ DECEMBER, with positive average returns of +1.69%
→ APRIL, with positive average returns of +0.76%
→ JUNE, with positive average returns +0.65%
→ SEPTEMBER, with positive average returns of +0.63%
(↓)-SHORT TRADES
According to 2000-2014 data the best months to go short on EURUSD are:
→ JANUARY, with negative average returns -0.91%
→ MAY, with negative average returns -0.64%
→ OCTOBER, with negative average returns -0.55%
→ AUGUST, with negative average returns -0.50%
USDJPY ANALYSIS
The United States Dollar against the Japanese Yen ($/¥) –Nickname ‘The Yen’
CENTRAL BANK |
FED |
BoJ |
FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES |
41.901 Million USD |
1.199.000 Million USD |
USDJPY is a very dynamic Forex pair that trades within straightforward long-term cycles. USDJPY is one of the three most liquid Forex pairs worldwide along with EURUSD and GBPUSD. Note that the Bank of Japan holds massive Foreign Currency Reserves worth about 1.2 trillion USD.
These are the monthly average returns of USDJPY based on 15 years of daily data.
CALENDAR MONTH |
AVERAGE MONTHLY RETURNS |
TIMES (↑) |
TIMES (↓) |
AVERAGE DAILY VOLATILITY |
JANUARY |
0.34% |
9 |
6 |
0.905% |
FEBRUARY |
0.80% |
8 |
7 |
0.865% |
MARCH |
0.98% |
10 |
5 |
0.971% |
APRIL |
0.12% |
6 |
9 |
0.879% |
MAY |
-0.57% |
5 |
10 |
0.884% |
JUNE |
0.11% |
8 |
7 |
0.821% |
JULY |
-0.27% |
9 |
6 |
0.784% |
AUGUST |
-1.29% |
5 |
10 |
0.813% |
SEPTEMBER |
0.11% |
8 |
7 |
0.848% |
OCTOBER |
-0.61% |
7 |
8 |
0.846% |
NOVEMBER |
0.45% |
8 |
7 |
0.817% |
DECEMBER |
1.11% |
9 |
6 |
0.782% |
(↑)-LONG TRADES
According to data during 2000-2014, the best months to go long on USDJPY are:
→ DECEMBER, with positive average returns of +1.11%
→ MARCH, with positive average returns of +0.98%
→ FEBRUARY, with positive average returns of +0.80%
(↓)-SHORT TRADES
According to 2000-2014 data the best months to go short on USDJPY are:
→ AUGUST, with negative average returns of -1.29%
→ OCTOBER, with negative average returns of -0.61%
→ MAY, with negative average returns of -0.57%
GBPUSD ANALYSIS
The British Pound Sterling against the United States Dollar (£/$) –Nickname Cable
CENTRAL BANK |
BoE |
FED |
FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES |
10.135 Million USD |
41.901 Million USD |
GBPUSD is one of the three most liquid pairs worldwide along with EURUSD and USDJPY. Historically, GBPUSD shows a positive correlation with EURUSD and a negative correlation with USDCHF.
Note: The Bank of England (BoE) holds only 10.135 million USD in Foreign Currency Reserves but the UK Central Government holds 72.092 million USD in Foreign Currency Reserves.
These are the monthly average returns of GBPUSD based on 15 years of daily data.
CALENDAR MONTH |
AVERAGE MONTHLY RETURNS |
TIMES (↑) |
TIMES (↓) |
AVERAGE DAILY VOLATILITY |
JANUARY |
-0.09% |
6 |
8 |
0.824% |
FEBRUARY |
-0.87% |
7 |
8 |
0.770% |
MARCH |
-0.26% |
8 |
7 |
0.748% |
APRIL |
1.43% |
13 |
2 |
0.684% |
MAY |
-0.56% |
4 |
11 |
0.737% |
JUNE |
0.94% |
10 |
5 |
0.767% |
JULY |
0.32% |
7 |
8 |
0.695% |
AUGUST |
-0.95% |
5 |
10 |
0.688% |
SEPTEMBER |
0.48% |
9 |
6 |
0.761% |
OCTOBER |
-0.13% |
8 |
7 |
0.804% |
NOVEMBER |
-0.47% |
5 |
10 |
0.801% |
DECEMBER |
0.36% |
6 |
9 |
0.748% |
(↑)-LONG TRADES
According to data during 2000-2014, the best months to go long on GBPUSD are:
→ APRIL, with positive average returns of +1.43%
→ JUNE, with positive average returns +0.94%
→ SEPTEMBER, with positive average returns of +0.48%
(↓)-SHORT TRADES
According to 2000-2014 data the best months to go short on GBPUSD are:
→ AUGUST, with negative average returns -0.97%
→ FEBRUARY, with negative average returns -0.87%
→ MAY, with negative average returns -0.56%
EURJPY ANALYSIS
The European Currency (Euro) against the Japanese Yen –Nickname Euppy
CENTRAL BANK |
ECB |
BoJ |
FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES |
51.373 Million USD |
1.199.651 Million USD |
EURJPY is one of the most liquid Euro crosses as it combines the popularity of the Euro with the exporting excellence of the Japanese economy. EURJPY is a very volatile Forex pair offered by Forex brokers in narrow spreads. The combination of tight spreads and daily volatility makes EURJPY ideal for Forex trading. The Yen is a traditionally low-yielding currency and that makes it suitable for carry traders who sell the Japanese Yen and buy higher-yielding currencies, such as NZD and AUD.
These are the monthly average returns of EURJPY based on 15 years of daily data.
CALENDAR MONTH |
AVERAGE MONTHLY RETURNS |
TIMES (↑) |
TIMES (↓) |
AVERAGE DAILY VOLATILITY |
JANUARY |
-0.56% |
8 |
7 |
1.127% |
FEBRUARY |
0.67% |
8 |
7 |
1.074% |
MARCH |
1.19% |
11 |
4 |
1.093% |
APRIL |
0.84% |
9 |
6 |
1.019% |
MAY |
-1.21% |
9 |
6 |
1.054% |
JUNE |
0.70% |
10 |
5 |
0.974% |
JULY |
-0.29% |
7 |
8 |
0.880% |
AUGUST |
-1.77% |
3 |
12 |
0.938% |
SEPTEMBER |
0.64% |
10 |
5 |
1.017% |
OCTOBER |
-1.07% |
8 |
7 |
1.079% |
NOVEMBER |
0.88% |
10 |
5 |
1.050% |
DECEMBER |
2.74% |
11 |
4 |
0.882% |
(↑)-LONG TRADES
According to data during 2000-2014, the best months to go long on EURJPY are:
→ DECEMBER, with positive average returns of +2.74%
→ MARCH, with positive average returns of +1.19%
→ NOVEMBER, with positive average returns of +0.88%
(↓)-SHORT TRADES
According to 2000-2014 data the best months to go short on EURJPY are:
→ AUGUST, with negative average returns -1.77%
→ MAY, with negative average returns -1.21%
→ OCTOBER, with negative average returns -1.07%